This process is very important for every trader and should be done by everyone for all the underlyings they are going to use because it allows us to really know what we are dealing with and how to deal with it.
The Futures in question is the ETHEREUM.
Full contract:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/ether/ether.contractSpecs.html
Micro contract:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/ether/micro-ether.contractSpecs.html
GENERAL SPECS
NATURE OF THE INSTRUMENT
First of all we will analyze the nature of the instrument: breakout or reversal.
To do this I use some codes written by me and I run them on the underlying on different Timeframes. It’s a simple stop and reverse code. In total I have 4 methods for detecting breakouts and 4 methods for detecting mean reverting. Whenever one of them produces a positive result I give a “+” sign.
From the analyzes, the Breakout nature is the best nature. So in the future we will focus on strategies based on this nature.
VOLUME ANALYSIS
I first analyze the daily volumes via TradingView and Tradestation. I use a 200-period average on the volumes to calculate them.
Full contract: Daily volumes..
We have an average of 5.000 contracts per day.
Full contract: Intraday volumes..
As you can see, the volumes are not very high, intraday trading will be difficult especially outside the most traded time slots which in this case range from 8 in the morning to 15 in the afternoon.
With more analysis we might find some bias interested in these volumes …
Micro contract: Daily Volumes..
We have an average of 10.500 contracts per day, twice as much as its older brother.
Micro contract: Intraday Volumes..
Here, too, the analysis is not contradicted, we have many more contracts and therefore are more likely to be executed at the price we want.
MONETARY EXCURSION
Having done this, I move on to the movement of the instrument on a monetary basis. This step is very important for future strategy writing and risk calculation. To do this I use a small indicator that I wrote that multiplies the range of the candle by its BigPointValue.
I have done this on several timeframes. Here are the results:
As I said previously, these metrics are very important because they allow us to calculate the riskiness of the underlying and use appropriate stoplosses for our strategies. For example, we should not use a stoploss of $ 200 for a strategy that is on the market for more than one day on this underlying basis.
RETURNS: INTRADAY, DAILY, WEEKLY AND MONTHLY
Now let’s move on to analyzing price behavior in relation to hours, weeks and months. To do this, I use some strategies written by me and then analyze the results through software or through some sites that offer these services.
Here are the behaviors that I was able to analyze for this futures…
Intraday:
This data is obtained from the analysis of long operations made at the opening of the candle and closed at the close. In this way with the extracted data and the interpretation we can obtain the trend of the futures during the day …
Weekly:
These data are obtained using a strategy with daily bars that enters at the opening of the candle in the long position and exits at the close of the same candle.
Day of the month:
These charts are derived from the same strategy as above.
Monthly:
CORRELATION
In this part we look at the correlations between the data. I used the data provided by my broker ( Tradestation ) and used a python script to interpret it.
Hourly data:
Daily data:
PERFORMANCE
This section shows the performance data in relation to the years.
Finished analysis! In the future, I intend to add more information and graphs to my analysis to provide you with further insights and advice. I hope it helps you to better develop your strategies!